The year 2016
has arrived and it has come with a bang. As we offer an ‘early-warning service,’
here are some things to watch for:
US
Presidential election:
The campaign
for the Democratic and Republican nominations for the office of President of
the United States has been in full swing for many months … with many more
months left to go. Since US President Barack Obama has been elected twice, and
is constitutionally barred from running for a third term, he will be replaced
by either the Republican or Democratic nominee who wins the November 2016
general election. The inauguration will be 20 January 2017.
Hillary
Clinton, former first lady, US Senator, and Secretary of State, is the current
front-runner for the Democratic Party. Husband, former President Bill Clinton,
would dearly love to return to the White House as history first-ever ‘First
Gentleman’ and is prepared to campaign hard on behalf of his wife. Mr. Clinton
is a master campaigner. Hillary has many endorsements, universal name
recognition, and lots of money to fund her campaign ($120 million the last
count).
However, there
are some big potholes on the way to the White House. Though Mrs. Clinton is no
stranger to controversy, there are serious questions about her time as America’s
Secretary of State, including her handling of the Benghazi situation leading up
to the murder of the US Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who was based in a
poorly secured villa. In addition, there was her use of a private email server,
mixing personal and private emails, and missing crucial emails at the time of
Steven’s murder.
Yet there are
even more things plaguing her campaign. The FBI has begun investigating Mrs.
Clinton’s use of private email as Secretary of State. Why was classified
information found on her personal server, which is a possible violation of the
US espionage laws? The agency also wants to explore whether public corruption
laws where contravened when Clinton’s State Department work co-mingled with the
Clinton Foundation business.
While Mrs.
Clinton’s experience is given as an asset, actual accomplishments are not
mentioned. In addition, Socialist Bernie Sanders has made some big strides by
cutting into her once invincible lead. While social progressives, left-wingers,
and left-leaning moderates, would welcome a ‘second coming of the Clintons’ to
the White House, conservatives would strongly oppose a rerun.
On the
Republican side, the front-runner is business mogul Donald Trump, who has be
ahead in the polls for months among the large pack of Republican candidates.
Though not a politician himself, the successful business man does not appear to
be beholden to special interests. His call to temporarily ban Muslim
immigration to the United States resonated very well with many voters, who like
a candidate to be straight-talking, rather than regurgitate the same
politically correct line. Mr. Trump can be brash and impolite - listen to what
he called journalist Meghan Kelly or fellow-candidate Carly Fiorina - but at
this point it has not affected his front-runner status.
There are many
other declared republican candidates, including former Florida governor Jeb
Bush, Ohio governor John Kasich, New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Senators
Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former
Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee,
it is a crowded field in a highly divisive atmosphere. Though the republicans
are offering experienced present and former governors (a successful state
governor has the most credible experience to be a successful president), it is
the rise of the ‘non-politicians’ like Trump, Carson, and Fiorina, that has
been so remarkable.
Republican voters
perceive that their once conservative party is beginning to look like the
left-wing Democrats. Tea Party conservatives have been unable to deliver on
their promise of a balanced budget and limited government. The American
electorate seems as unpredictable and distrustful as ever, even to credible
experienced politicians.
What to Watch: Predicting the final winner in
November will not be easy in this a volatile campaign. Expect mud-slinging
between the candidates within a party, as well as the front-runners of both
major parties. Of interest, the Trumps and Clintons, fellow New Yorkers, have
been chummy in the past (Donald and Bill played golf together) but the guns are
already out for each other.
NOTE: Australia will also have a federal
election in 2016. More about this, plus other areas to watch, will be dealt
with in Part 02.
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