It should have
come as no surprise. On Tuesday 8 May 2018, United States President Donald
Trump made the grand announcement - that the United States was withdrawing from
the Iran nuclear deal. He promised to do so during his 2016 Presidential
campaign. He repeatedly made noises about this nuclear deal as being the ‘worst
deal’ he has ever seen. So Mr. Trump has kept his campaign promise. What,
however, does this mean for the world? Is it good news, bad news, or both?
For years, the
world has looked with great concern as Iran pursued nuclear power, which, it
consistently proclaimed was only for peaceful purposes. Why did a nation with
10% of the world’s oil and the 2nd largest gas reserves need to go
nuclear? The Islamic Republic has a well-known habit of proclaiming ‘death’ to
America. They predict that Israel will ‘disappear’ within 25 years. Why was
Iran developing ballistic missiles that were able to reach all of the Middle
East and much of Europe?
Despite the
regime’s declared peaceful intentions, the world community obviously did not
believe them: hence, heavy sanctions were levied by the United States, the
United Nations, and the European Union. All these sanctions had a debilitating
effect on Iran’s economy.
Under former US
President Barack Obama, the US, the European Union, Germany and the other four
permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, China, France, United
Kingdom) negotiated with Iran to forge a nuclear agreement. The idea was that
Iran would receive sanction-relief in exchange for strict limitations on its
nuclear program. The goal: to prevent Iran from developing nuclear
weapons. The parties did come to an agreement on 14 July 2015 and the Iran
nuclear agreement became known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA). It has been operative ever since and Iran has allegedly been in
compliance with the terms of the agreement. In exchange, it has received $100
billion dollars or more, along with full oil exports, all of which helped its
moribund economy
So practically
speaking, what did President Trump’s announcement actually do? He did not end
the JCPOA - he merely withdrew American participation in it. It is no longer US
foreign policy. The other signatories are free to abide by it and the UK was
one of the first to say that it would.
No question, Mr.
Trump’s action would be controversial. It is also unilateral, not
multi-lateral, since the other parties are still technically on board with the
JCPOA. In theory, it could make the instability in the Middle East even more
so. However, here are some things to consider.
Sunset Clause: The JCPOA in theory does not stop
Iran from gaining a nuclear weapons capability; it merely slows it down. Within
10-15 years, the major restrictions on Iran will be lifted, thus allowing them
to freely continue research and development, enrich uranium, and use advanced
centrifuges. For agreeing to apply some brakes on their nuclear program, Iran
received billions which have clearly gone to funnel militant groups. While Iran
is to permanently renounce any pursuit of nuclear weapons, it has no legal
impediment to do so after the restrictions expire.
Increased
unrest: Since JCPOA,
Iran-inspired unrest has increased in the Middle East. Hizballah, Iran’s proxy,
has effectively taken over Lebanon. Iran has raised up its own army in Syria,
where the slaughter has grown. Hamas in Gaza is being rearmed. Houthi rebels in
Yemen have been armed by Iran with missiles, which have been fired into Saudi
Arabia.
Non-transparency:
Iran appears to
have complied with the terms of the agreement. Or have they? Was not part of
the deal that Iran would to be 100% transparent in regards to its nuclear
history? They said that they have never sought to pursue nuclear weapons, while
the recent evidence says otherwise. This is especially the case where Israel’s
secret service, the Mossad, stole 1000s of pages of nuclear files from a secret
storage facility in Tehran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then made a
public presentation around these documents, which tell a different story to the
official Iranian position.
Missiles: Iran’s pursuit of long-range
ballistic missiles should be a concern for the Middle East and Europe. These
are not even covered by the JCPOA. Even without nuclear weapons, these missiles
can carry deadly payloads.
Legality: Normally a treaty has to be approved
by 60 senators in the US Senate. This was not the case with JCPOA. In fact,
symbolically 60% of all congressmen and senators voted against the agreement,
including well-known left-wing Democratic allies of Obama. So it is safe to say
that the agreement was never constitutionally ratified by the approval of 60
senators and therefore of dubious legality.
What next? Technically speaking, the JCPOA
continues, minus the United States. The US will reimpose sanctions within 90
days. Iran has warned the US that it will ‘regret’ its move, while the US has
told Iran it must not attack the US, or else face the dire consequences.
Iranian parliamentarians have burned a US flag inside the parliament building
(and were asked not to burn down the parliament building in the process). The
other parties can continue on but without America. Israel, of course, is
pleased about America’s withdrawal from JCPOA; so are Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi
Arabia, and UAE. These nations see a potential Iranian nuclear weapon as much a
mortal threat to them as does the Jewish state.
Iran has been
successful in its goal of building a ‘Shia Crescent’ from Iraq to Syria to
Lebanon (Persian Gulf to Mediterranean). However, the economy is weak, there have
been robust domestic protests against the regime, it is spread thin in Syria,
and faces a potential military encounter with Israel.
Iranian
leadership is highly pragmatic and this may prevent extreme measures. So either
Iran will submit to a North Korean-style rapprochement with America and the
West, or it could lead to more trouble for the regime. We will know soon.
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