THE AMERICAN MIDTERMS ARE OVER: WHAT NEXT?

The American mid-term election of Tuesday, 6 November 2018, has come and gone. What happens next?

First, what are the ‘mid-terms?’ They are the elections which happen in the ‘middle’ of the President’s four year term. It is where all 435 congressmen/women of the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 senators are up for election or re-election. Also, 34 out of 50 states elect or re-electing their governors. So, there are elections every two years and the presidential election every four years.

Thus one person who is not on the ballot during a mid-term election is the US President. Yet, many consider the mid-term a national referendum on the President’s performance.

The ‘mid-terms of 2018’ have attracted more interest than usual. Normally, voter turn out is low in the ‘off election’ but this one is different. Early voting was high and the voter participation on the day appears to have been higher than usual. Unsurprisingly, US President Donald Trump does not generate indifference, one way or the other.

WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?

First of all, the American Democrats regained the House of Representatives, 220 versus 193 Republicans. They lost the House in 2010 during President Obama’s first (2 year) mid-term. However, the Republicans retained the Senate, 52 versus 45; one commentator said it will be extremely difficult for the Democrats to regain the Senate in 2010. Thus, America has a divided Congress where neither a ‘blue wave’ or ‘red wave’ materialised.

With the House of Representatives in their hands, the Democrats have the power to stymie President Trump’s agenda of building a border wall with Mexico or having further tax cuts. They can also subpoena and have extensive investigations of anyone, including the President and his administration. They also have the power to impeach but not to convict (remember, impeachment means to bring charges of ‘high crimes and misdemeanours ‘against a government official; however, they cannot be removed from office unless convicted by a trial in the Senate). In history, only two US Presidents, Andrew Johnson (1868) and Bill Clinton (1998) were impeached by the House of Representatives. Neither were convicted by the Senate.

By retaining the Senate, the Trump Administration can continue to appoint conservative jurists at all levels. Already in the less than two years, Donald Trump has reconfigured the US Supreme Court. The court has gone from being apportioned between conservatives, moderates, and leftists; since Trump took office there are 4 leftists and 5 conservatives. There is a high chance that the President will appoint more justices before he leaves office.

Was this mid-term a referendum on Donald Trump. In some ways, yes. Yet how are we to interpret the ‘mixed result’ of losing the House yet gaining in the Senate? Here is some perspective.

RESULTS OF THE FIRST-TERMS OF

DONALD TRUMP’S IMMEDIATE PREDECESSORS

President	Party	House Seats (435)	Senate seats (100)
Ronald Reagan (1982)	Republican	-26 (192 > 166)	0: (54 > 54)
Ronald Reagan (1986)	Republican	-5 (182 > 177)	-8 (53 > 45)
George H.W. Bush (1990)	Republican	-8: (175 > 167)	-1 (45 > 44)
Bill Clinton (1994)	Democratic	-54 (258 > 204)	-9 (57 > 48)
Bill Clinton (1998)	Democratic	+5 (206 > 211)	0 (45 > 45)
George W. Bush (2002)	Republican	+8 (221 > 229)	+1 (49 > 50)
George W. Bush (2006)	Republican	- 30 (232 > 202)	-6 (55 > 49)
Barack Obama (2010)	Democratic	-63 (256 > 193)	-6 (57 > 51)
Barack Obama (2014)	Democratic	-13 (201 > 188)	-9 (53 > 44)

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had big losses in their first midterms. Clinton lost 54 Democratic House seats; Obama 63! Clinton lost both houses of Congress in 1994, Obama lost both in 2014. Compare this with Donald Trump, whose party lost 27 House Republican seats but gained seats in the Senate.

Common wisdom says that normally the political party of the incumbent President suffers in the first mid-terms. Yet, losing mid-terms need not be terminal. Two years later, both Clinton and Obama went on to win re-election.

Considering that predictions of a ‘blue wave’ (meaning a Democratic landslide) did not come to pass, and in light of the above statistics, Trump didn’t do so badly, especially when you consider the challenges, which included:

1)       House of Representative Retirements: More House Republicans retired in this election than any other time in 88 years;

2)       Hostile media: Consistent independent assessments confirm that over 90% of the coverage of the mainstream media on the Trump Administration is negative (and that is outside of election time); it is hard to argue with this assessment;

3)       Mega-Democratic fund-raising: Apparently the Democrats out-raised and out-spent the Republicans. For example, in the Texas Senate Race, Beto O’Rourke, a good-looking, media darling raised over $70 million to campaign against incumbent conservative Senator Ted Cruz. Cruz is despised by the media and only raised $33 million. Never in history has so much money been raised for one single senate seat (1 out of 100).

Yet, Donald Trump campaigned long and hard for Republican candidates. The ‘caravan’ of migrants coming from Central America also galvanised votes (these people, who say they are seeking asylum from oppressive regimes, rejected Mexico’s offer of asylum and continue to head towards the USA). The Brett Kavanaugh confirmation battle for the US Supreme Court, worked in the Republicans favour - all Democratic senators from Republican states, who voted against Kavanaugh confirmation all lost their bid for re-election. Then there is the good news about the US economy. By the way, Ted Cruz was reelected by the State of Texas with the highest voter turnout in a mid-term since 1994.

Nancy Pelosi, D-California, is favoured to become the Speaker of the House of Representatives, an office she held from 2007-2011. This is a powerful position which is third only to the President and Vice-President (if, hypothetically, the President and VP died, the Speaker of the House would become President).

Upon winning the House, Pelosi made some conciliatory comments, including:

Strive for bipartisanship

Seek to honour the values of our founders

Seek common denominator (with the Republicans)

Work with transparency

At the same time, there will be the temptation to have investigations, issue subpoenas, ask to see Trump’s tax return, or even begin impeachment proceedings. As a former Democratic Party leader advised the incoming Democratic-led House: Legislate, legislate, legislate, not investigate, investigate, investigate.

Mid-terms, indeed, all elections, is never black and white. A President could have a Congress of the opposite party … and still make progress. A President could have a Congress of his own party and not get much done.

The Bigger Picture

While there is constant talk and criticism about the ‘tone’ of the President and the lack of unity in the United States, this election, along with every other in the last 40-50 years, needs to be seen in the larger context of the culture war. It has resulted in rapid secularisation, abortion on demand, marriage redefinition, and an outright resistance to Judea-Christian values. Unless we can see things from the prism of the culture war, then it is impossible to explain the growing chasm in society.

Having its origin in the 1960s, the culture war is the defining challenge of America - more than foreign policy, more than the economy, more than mere politics. Left wing Progressive (sometimes called ‘liberals’) want a more ‘equal,’ ‘tolerant’ society with ‘social justice,’ all which comes from big government. Many ignore or seek to undermine Judea-Christian values. Conservatives want limited government, maximum freedom, including conscience and religion. Donald Trump has become America’s first-ever war-time President in the culture war - and he’s fighting back. For people who do not recognise this war, or do not see it as problematic, they are offended by Trump’s style and /or actions. For those who see this war as an existential threat on America and Western Civilisation, Trump’s fight-back and results are appreciated, even if his style is not.

As a billionaire businessman, Donald Trump’s is able to negotiate and ‘make deals’ (after all, he is the author of the best-selling book The Art of the Deal). His skills will be put to the test by the Democratically dominated House. For the sake of America, if not the world, let’s pray he can pull it off.