Decision Time for Brexit

The 29th of March, 2019, is soon approaching. It is the date the United Kingdom is scheduled to formally ‘exit’ the European Union (EU), after 46 years of membership. The EU will be reduced from 28 to 27 member nations. This ‘exit’ is popularly known as ‘Brexit,’ a contraction of ‘British exit.’

Make no mistake about it: Brexit is the single-most important event in the United Kingdom since the end of the Second World War. And it promises to affect the nation, continent, and the world.

Before we focus on the present, let’s take a quick look at the past. The European continent was wracked with unimaginable horror - twice in one century. These horrors were two world wars, both of which were fought on European soil. Millions were killed and injured and the continent was laid waste. With the vision to avoid future European wars and enter into a period of permanent peace and prosperity, the European Union was born. Less well known, though no secret either, is that the founders of the Union envisaged a superstate, where the member nations would be reduced to provinces in a country called ‘Europe.’

The marks of the superstate are there for all to see. Europe has a common currency, called the euro (17 out of 28 members have this as their currency). They also have a common flag, commission, parliament, bureaucracy. The Schegen Agreement means borderless travel between most EU members, not alike free travel across state boundaries in the USA or Australia.

In order to understand Britain’s experience with the EU, just image the following:

•   An Australasian union of nations starting with Far East Russia, China, Korea, and Japan in the North, all the way to the Australian states of Victoria and Tasmania in the South. Oh, let’s not forget New Zealand!;

•   In this union people are free to travel, live, and work between all points in-between the North and South. No visas. No permission. If these people sojourn in a land, they are expected to receive government entitlements just like the citizens of that country;

•   The capital of this union would be Kuala Lumpur (KL);

•   Australia, along with all the other countries, have to send regular and hefty payments to KL;

•   At the same time, laws and regulations are issued from KL. Compliance is mandatory. In fact, the edicts take precedence over national law and elected local parliaments;

•   External migrants (this includes economic migrants as well as bonafide refugees) are expected to be accepted by among the member states of the Australasian union.

Now you can understand what Britain has lived with for over four decades.

On 23 June 2016, in fulfilment to a campaign promise the previous year’s election, former British Prime Minister David Cameron hosted an ‘In-Out’ Referendum on continued UK membership in the EU. Though much of the government and opposition, along with the elites, big business, and media, were all for ‘Bremain,’ the electorate chose ‘Brexit’ 52% to 48%. This was a shock result, the first of two for the year: the other is the election of Donald Trump as US President.

Why Brexit? First, there was the obvious loss of British sovereignty. It has been estimated that 59% of law operative in Britain actually came from Brussels; only 41% came from the UK parliament in Westminster.

Second, the big payments going to the EU. Third, the migrant crisis of 2015, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave the ‘wink and nod’ for over a million migrants to come to Europe, caused many Britons to think: this could be happening to us. The latter point probably tipped the balance in favour of Brexit.

Another factor not mentioned but very important: the EU’s repudiation of Europe’s Christian heritage and its de facto adoption of the Phoenician goddess Europa as the symbol of Europe. This incremental move caused some British Christian say: Enough! Jesus, not Europa, is Lord!

After the referendum, Cameron immediately resigned and was replaced by Theresa May. Though she voted ‘Remain,’ May has been tireless in trying to fulfil the wishes of the British people. She was quoted as saying ‘Brexit means Brexit and we will make a success of it.’ In March 2017, she invoked Article 50, which meant Britain was serving two-years notice of its departure from the EU.

UK Parliament Votes ‘No’

A Brexit ‘deal’ means there will be a transitional period. ‘No deal’ means no transitional period.

The 27 member EU has approved a Brexit ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ - basically, the bill of divorce. However, on 15 January 2019 the British Parliament firmly rejected the Brexit deal 432 against to only 202 for. This is easily the biggest government defeat in British history. Even 118 conservative MPs voted against their government, meaning ‘pro-Brexit’ joined with ‘pro-Remain’ to defeat the agreement.

Some of the reasons for rejecting the agreement included:

1.       The Northern Ireland (NI) ‘back-stop:’ Ireland, part of the UK, suffered 30 years of ‘troubles’ before a sound agreement came in 1998, which resulted in a ‘soft-border’ between NI and the Irish Republic, an EU member. In order to keep an open border, if there is no long-term trade agreement after the interim-period, then the backstop would start. NI and the rest of the UK would be in a ‘single customs territory.’ This would be like a divorce but still living under the same roof. This ‘backstop,’ though meant to be interim, could only cease with EU approval.

2.       Payment: The EU withdrawal agreement required the UK to pay a minimum GBP 39 billion. Why? To cover its financial obligations. Is this the ‘alimony in a divorce?’

3.       Free movement of people: This was a major British concern since they want to take control of their borders. However, the ‘free movement’ of EU citizens could continue all the way to 2022. Thus, the door to Britain would remain open for the next few years.

What’s Next?

Since the Brexit bill was rejected by Parliament, what are the choices?

1.      Back to Brussels: Since the British Parliament said ‘No,’ the government could negotiate another deal, especially fixing the ‘Irish back-stop,’ which was a major concern of the parliamentarians;

2.      No confidence motion: Led by the Labour Opposition, this has happened and it attempts to remove the government and spawn an early election;

3.      Delay Brexit: The 29 March departure date would be delayed, even though it has been enshrined into British legislation;

4.      No deal: It is possible to leave the EU without a deal, meaning no transitional period. While some are predicting a ‘no deal apocalypse,’ others are more;

5.      Parliament takes control: Take Brexit from the government and give it to the liaison committee of MPs. Then they could have a ‘Norway-type’ Brexit; staying in the custom union and single-market. Norway is not a member of the EU, but is part of Schegen, the EU’s single market and custom unit;

6.      Another referendum? The referendum would ask if they want to accept the withdrawal deal or cancel Brexit. Takes time, costly, and may cause electorate to lose faith in the democratic system. Most Brits, including remainers, have mentally accepted Brexit.

7.      Cancel Brexit: The EU would make it easy to remain in the union and it would not have to be approved by the other 27 members. Again, this would be a betrayal of the referendum vote of 2016.

While Brexit is a major political crisis, Britain is a remarkable, resilient, robust nation that has led the world in statecraft, industry, achievements, courage in the face of adversity, the English language, and, yes, the Christian faith. Let spiritual people pray for God’s help and direction in this crucial time in Britain’s history.