2019 What Lies Ahead? Elections Aplenty

ELECTIONS APLENTY

2019 is the year for elections. Even the 2020 US Presidential election has become. What lies ahead?

2020 US Presidential Campaign: Other countries continue to stand aghast at how lengthy, and expensive US presidential campaigns are. The upcoming election will be in far way November 2020, and already the gun has sounded and the runners have taken off.

If the Democrats can’t remove Trump from office via impeachment, they are hoping to do so at the ballot box. The field of declared contenders for the Democratic Party nomination is already crowded and more and more are ‘mulling over’ a run for the White House. Chances are, the number of Democrats running for President in 2020 will exceed the 17 Republicans who campaigned for their party’s nomination in 2016. Already, more women are declared candidates than ever before.

How will President Trump fare? His approval rating at the moment is 44% versus 57% negative. Ronald Reagan was 33% approval rating at this same time in his administration, yet the following year he won re-election by a landslide. Some things to consider:

1.       Power of incumbency: Usually, Americans give an incumbent president a second term. There are exceptions: George HW Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Herbert Hoover in 1932. However, conducting one’s presidential duties, in a presidential manner, with the backdrop of the Oval Office and the White House is a powerful campaign tool.

2.       Ideas & the future: If the 2020 presidential campaign focuses on ideas & the future, Mr. Trump will win. He can claim that Americans, including minorities, are better off under his leadership than they were before.

3.       The economy: If the economy continues to roar along, as it has, he will win. No one wants to overturn the economic apple cart as its delivering the fruit.

4.       Radicalism: The American Democratic Party is shifting from the mainstream to the radical far left. While academics, millennials, the media, and the elites think this is wonderful, the average American will not. Radicalism could literally push voters into the arms of Donald Trump. Hard left Democrats, including those who have declared their candidacy for President, are advocating things like:  

1.       A. ’Green New Deal,’ which will cost $49 trillion in 10 years;

2.       Single-payer socialised, nationalised, medicine, called ‘Medicare for all,’ with a price tag of $32 trillion over a decade;

3.       Banning private cars; 

4.       70% upper tax rate, and more.

5.       Private health insurance would be banned.

6.       Reduction of military spending to half;

7.       Ban coal and natural gas within a decade;

8.       While they may not say so aloud, they also want soft borders, if any. Even if America didn’t have a 21 Trillion dollar national debt, it is questionable whether these costly program could be implemented.

Mr. Trump will have to work hard to get re-elected but if a Democrat has any hope of defeating the President at the ballot box, she or he will have to do the same.

CANBERRA: There will be a federal election in Australia by May 2019. The current centre-right Liberal Coalition government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison is trailing in the opinion polls against the left-leaning Australian Labour Party with Bill Shorten as opposition leader (of interest, Mr. Morrison gets higher points than Mr. Shorten as preferred prime minister).

Progressivism, with its emphasis on big government, entitlements, open borders, redefined morality, has done very well in Australia in 2017-2018. Same-sex marriage was legalised before Christmas 2017. In 2018, abortion was legalised in Queensland, the ‘safe Liberal seat’ of Wentworth in Sydney was lost to an independent, and the Andrews Labor government in the State of Victoria was re-elected in a landslide. Mr. Andrews boasted that his is and will continue to be ‘the most progressive government in Australia.’ He is right, it is. If Mr. Shorten becomes Prime Minister, fully expect for him to follow in the progressive footsteps of his Victorian counterpart.

The issue of religious freedom will be very much at stake. In their quest for ‘equality’ ‘diversity,’ and ‘non-discrimination,’ the progressives will demand that faith-based institutions, particularly Christian ones, toe the line and accept people as students and employees who do not share the religious or moral tenets of that institution. This battle is already being waged elsewhere in the western world and warning shots have already been fired in Australia.

Another issue is that of Australia’s relationship with Israel. The ‘land down under’ has been considered a solid friend of the Jewish state from the very beginning, including its pivotal role in the successful campaign at Beersheba, October 1917, that saw the beginning of the end of 400 years of Ottoman rule and paved the way for the British Mandate and establishment of Israel 30 years later. Australia took in more holocaust survivors per capita than anywhere else on earth, except for Israel. Until now, Australian Jews felt they were the safest in the Diaspora. Yet, in 2018, there was a 60% increase in anti-Semitic incidents. Jewish schools and synagogues now are being patrolled by armed guards.

And there’s more. The government of Prime Minister Morrison recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The media poured contempt on the idea, Indonesia threatened not to sign the trade agreement, and the Labor Party also poured cold water. Bill Shorten said he would reverse the decision once he becomes Prime Minister. Labor MP Penny Wong said it was wrong to recognise Jerusalem as even part of Israel’s capital, saying it ‘…puts Australia out of step with the international community…’ Ms. Wong says the Labor government will advocate the ‘two-state solution’ (which now also means a ‘two-Jerusalem solution, too). Labor won’t recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital but they are poised to recognise the ‘statehood of Palestine.’

EUROPEAN UNION: In May there will be elections for the European Parliament. There are 751 MEP (Member of the European Parliament), representing 28 national and 512 million people. They have already voted to reduce the number of MEPs from 751 to 705 in anticipation of Brexit, when the UK exits the European Union.

JERUSALEM: Israel is going to the polls in a national election April 9th. Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin, already the second longest serving PM in Israel’s history after David Ben Gurion, is seeking a 5th term. Known for his security credentials, he faces a stiff challenge from a new politician Benny Gantz of the new Blue and White Party. As a retired Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (2011-2015), military man, Mr. Gantz may also scrub up as strong on security. Netanyahu was an underdog in the 2015 election, yet had an upset victory. Now that Israel’s attorney general is threatening to indict the PM, can Netanyahu pull a Harry Houdini again? Watch this space.