It
happened in America. It happened in Sri Lanka. It happened in Israel and the
United Kingdom … twice. Now it has happened in Australia. What is the ‘it?’ The
‘it’ is called ‘an upset’ or ‘shock’ election result. All this … and more …
within the last four years.
Even
if you are not Australian or understand Australian politics, there is a lesson
for everyone, including in the British, Americans, and the rest of the world.
Election 2019 in Australia may be a foretaste of greater shock elections to
come. Let’s learn why?
Australians went to the polls for the May 18, 2019 federal election. The governing party, the Liberal-National Coalition (from henceforth called ‘Coalition’), which, despite the name, is meant to be the conservative party, was trailing in every poll for the last two years, often by double-digits. The left-of-centre opposition Labor Party was tipped to win the election and form government. Not only did the regular opinion polls support them but also the exit polls, the media, pundits, and the elites. As one commentator said, Election 2019 was Labor’s to lose. People were in gambling mood, Creative apparently one man bet $1 million while some betting agencies paid out before the results were announced.
Then
the grand announcement came on election night. The Coalition, under the
leadership of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, had won! Everyone, including the
winner, was in shock.
How
did the polls get it so wrong?
Australia’s
polling agencies often get it so right. But not this time. Why?
Theories: Why Labor Lost?
Of
course, the theories abound. The Labor Party may have been ahead in the polls
but their leader since 2013, Bill Shorten, was not. He consistently lost in the
‘preferred prime minister’ category again and again, against Morrison and even his
ousted predecessor Malcolm Turnbull.
Labor
also released their proposed policies that they would implement once they took
government. These policies were not ‘vote-getters.’ They included the
‘death tax,’ a rise in the corporate tax rate hike, more climate change
regulations, removal of the investment property tax-exemption called
‘negative-gearing.’ Shorten promised to ‘de-recognise’ Jerusalem as Israel’s
capital and set aside $55 million for a plebiscite on whether Australia should
become a republic. Some of these policies were tried in the 1980s and 1990s -
and they failed. Why resurrect them now?
There
were also hints of class warfare: tax to the max the ‘high-end of town.’ These
sentiments don’t normally go well in an egalitarian society like Australia.
There
were parallels between Bill Shorten 2019 and Hillary Clinton 2016: both were
ahead in the polls yet personally unpopular. Both were promised the
‘un-loseable’ election, yet lost, anyway.
And the Winner Is …
The
winner is … Scott Morrison, who has only been in office as Prime Minister 9
months. He took over from left-of-centre Malcolm Turnbull. Morrison won the
election in his own right and obtained a majority government … despite the
polls.
How
did ‘Scomo,’ as he is popularly known, do it? Experts said that Morrison, who
has a marketing background, rebranded himself as the everyday, sports-mad,
‘daggy-dad’ who wears a baseball hat. He managed to reunite a fractured Liberal
Party that had a toxic atmosphere, including accusations of misogyny (not
exactly a vote-winner in the era of #metoo). Thus, his party reunification
efforts were no small feat. He also appealed to voters sentiment that favoured
economic management over climate change regulations. Economic management is one
of the Coalition’s perceived strengths.
Now
with the experts’ opinion stated, here are some things to consider.
Why did Scott Morrison win?
Straw in the wind: This author cannot remember who or when, but there was
an immensely prescient article in a major Australia newspaper, perhaps 12-24
months ago. It had to do with the opinion polls - Labor vs. the Coalition.
Rather than predict a Labor win, the author stated the opposite: yes,
Australian Labor Party was ahead in the polls currently, but not as much as
they should be, especially considering how vulnerable the Coalition was.
The writer accurately predicted that Bill Shorten’s chances of being prime
minister were being diminished to nil because of the narrow poll margin. He
proved to be amazingly right.
Preferred PM: Mr. Morrison, while he did not reverse the opinion
polls in favour of his party, he did manage to narrow the gap from double-digit
to 51- 49 in favour of Labor. That’s pretty good. More importantly, he managed
to win the respect of the electorate as ‘preferred prime minister,’ again and
again.
Conservative factor: Something often overlooked was that Morrison won back
the conservative votes. A quick history lesson: the Liberal National
Coalition has the reputation of being the ‘right-of-centre’ or ‘conservative’
party (though it can contain a few left-leaning progressives). They came to
power in 2013 under Tony Abbott, who was a genuinely conservative man and
advocate of personal responsibility. Though he was energetic and productive,
Abbott was greatly disliked by the media, did poorly in the polls, and was
replaced in a ‘party room coup’ by Malcolm Turnbull in September 2015.
Mr.
Turnbull, who gained a national profile as the leader of the Australian
Republican Movement in the 1990s, was not even remotely conservative. He wanted
to push the Liberal Party to ‘centre’ and even leftward (NOTE: Being
‘centrist’ and ‘moderate’ does not mean what you think it means. It usually
implies being middle of the road economically but left-wing morally).
Many
conservative people were alienated by Turnbull’s conspicuous progressivism and
forsook the Liberal Party. Last August 2018, after losing poll after poll, Mr.
Turnbull was ousted by his party and Scott Morrison took his place (Morrison
credibly claims that he was not involved in the ouster). Mr. Morrison, a
Pentecostal Christian, is reasonably conservative, and many conservatives have
returned to the fold.
People of faith: Regarding the ‘Christian’ and ‘religious vote, there
were strong and credible perceptions that religious liberty would take a big
hit under a Labor Government. This is one of the reasons faith-based
organisations like the Australian Christian Lobby, Family Voice Australia, and
other conservative Christians campaigned so hard.
Patrick
Parkinson, head of the University of Queensland law school said: ‘Labor did
poorly in areas of Australia where religious faith ― of all kinds ― is alive
and well.’ He concludes : ‘Labor may want to look at its attitude to
religious faith among the causes of its disastrous performance … It did poorly
in areas of Australia where religious faith ― of all kinds ― is alive and
well.’
Finally, and most importantly, the God-factor: A point overlooked
by everyone, including many Christians, is the God-factor. No, God does not belong
to any political party, but He does promote and demote leaders (Psalm 75:6-7).
God’s people are to pray for ‘kings and all who are in authority,’
whether they voted for them or not (I Timothy 2:1-4). We are called to ‘vote on
our knees’ before we ‘vote on our feet.’ The two great upset elections of 2016:
Brexit and Donald Trump, were bathed in prayer.
Regarding
Morrison and the Shock Election 2019, Andrew Evans, former superintendent of
the Assemblies of God in Australia, as well as former member of the South
Australian parliament, gave this exhortation: Church, wake up. We have a
Pentecostal Christian as Prime Minister in Canberra, but he won’t be there for
long if you don’t pray for him.’ Andrew Evans has a well-earned
reputation as a Christian leader and even in his 80s he still wields great
influence. Obviously, people listened. Remember that God is not a member of any
political party; but He will hear the prayers of those who pray for His ‘kingdom
come’ and His ‘will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.’
So
as we consider our original question - how did the polls get it so wrong -
remember that a praying, fasting, interceding church, will do more to alter the
politics, culture, and spiritual atmosphere of a nation, than any other force
in society. Prayer is more powerful than polls and can reverse poll results. As
the newly-elected Prime Minister put it: ‘I believe in miracles.’
PS
Now that the election is over, don’t roll over and go back to sleep! It is time
to pray for the Prime Minister, government, and, yes, the opposition Labor
Party and their new leader Anthony Albanese. A good opposition helps to make
for good governance. Let’s pray for the the nation, more than ever!!
2019 ‘Understanding the Times Tour’ The 5 Annual, Australia-Wide,
Understanding the Times Tour’ will be held from late August to early November
2019. Topic: Four Cities that are Shaking the World: Washington, London,
Canberra, and Jerusalem. Melbourne: Monday 26 August at Breakthrough
Church, Bayswater; Perth: Friday 1 November, Subiaco Church of Christ,
and many other venues in-between. For further information, log onto: tan.org.au; vision.org.au/kameel-tour; email: leanne@tan.org.au
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