As we enter into a new
year, and a new decade, there is great concern, anxiety, yet excitement, at
what lies ahead. What should we watch for? What should we expect in the year
2020?
The United States
& Iran: Please look
for our separate blog on this topic, which is also part of the Issachar
Teaching eLetter.
Israel: Before we focus on the US Presidential
Election of 3 November, let us keep our eyes on Israel. The Jewish State is
scheduled to go to the polls on 2 March 2020, for the third time in a year.
This unprecedented situation occurred because no major political party has been
able to form a coalition from the April 2019 and September 2019 elections.
The other thing to
watch what happens to Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister,
now in a care-taker role. He was indicted in November 2019 by Israel’s attorney
general for bribery, corruption, and breach of trust in three separate cases.
Netanyahu denies all charges. Will he go on trial in 2020? Or will he win the
election, form government, and remain immune from prosecution while in office?
China: This important nation, too big to ignore,
wields a lot of weight and faces a lot of challenges. While it eagerly desires
to be a rival superpower to the United States, there are many potholes on the
road. First is the trade war with the US; where will that lead? Then there are
the reports of serious repression of the Muslim Uighur minority in far west
Xinjiang Province - is it true and how
will the world respond if it is (if at all)? Then there is Hong Kong, where
pro-democracy protests have been held for months. Much of the population
attends or at least supports the goals of these demonstrations. Remember that
Hong Kong was once a British Crown Colony that was committed to Chinese sovereignty
in July 1997 under the banner ‘one country, two systems.’ This arrangement is
to last until 2047. Hong Kong’s capitalism and relative political freedom is in
stark contrast to the mainland. Though legally part of China, it really stands
apart with a high level of autonomy, to the point it has its own immigration
and laws. Will Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing Chief Executive, Carrie Lam, survive and
will China step in?
Another point: While China looks East, focusing on
claiming the South China Sea and bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s rule, it seems
to be ignoring a greater challenge in the West. Some of the former Central
Asian republics of the Soviet Union are becoming failed nation-states. If this
trend continues, citizens of those countries will stream into Xinjiang and
China, thus creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Cyber-Warfare: While this sounds like the topic of a
block-buster movie, this war has been going on for years. Key players include
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are chief suspects. This is serious
business because a well-aimed cyber attack can knock out the electrical grid,
close down an airport, freeze the banking system, and even worse.
Australia: See separate article on the bush fire
crisis.
The United States: Of course, the world will be watching
closely what will happen to President Donald Trump and the November 2020
elections. The first item is the articles of impeachment; what will happen to
him in the Senate? While conviction and removal from office seems unlikely, the
question is what will the Senate do? What kind of trial? How long will the
trial last?
Also to watch is the
Iowa Caucus on 3 February, the New Hampshire Primary February 11, and ‘Super
Tuesday’ on 3 March, where 14 states hold primaries: Alabama, Arkansas,
California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina,
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Remember, both Republican and
Democratic parties will field candidates and those who win the primary will
receive delegates for their respective parties national convention.
The 2020
Democratic National Convention will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on July
13-16. The Republican National Convention will take place in Charlotte, North
Carolina, from 24-27 August, 2020.
In addition to the
Presidential election on 3rd November, will be the congressional elections. All
435 representatives in the House will be up for re-election (2 year terms) and
33 senators out of 100 (6 year terms). Will the Democrats keep their majority in
the House? Will Nancy Pelosi retain her position as House Speaker (the third
highest office in the land after the President and Vice-President)? Or will the
House of Representatives revert back to the Republicans?
We can say for sure
that 2020 will not be a dull year.
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