It
came as a shock. The United States announced that on 3 January 2020, it had
killed Qassem Soleimani (1957-2020), Head of the Islamic Revolution Guard
Corps, as well as the Al Quds (the Islamic name for Jerusalem) Forces
(designated as a terrorist group), which is a combination of CIA & special
forces. Soleimani has been described as ‘second in command in Iran after
Supreme Leader Ali Khameini,’ ‘Iran’s viceroy in Iraq,’ and the single-most
powerful operative in the Middle East. His reach extended to Europe, Africa,
and South America. He is directly credited with the deaths of 600 American
servicemen in Iraq, and of late, a US contractor.
The
killing of Soleimani was ordered by US President Donald Trump. It was a
response to the shelling and killing of a US contractor a few days earlier, as
well as an incident at the US Embassy in Baghdad. While Trump’s US (and non-US)
critics said he acted impulsively and precipitately, the assassination comes
after several recent Iranian provocations: attacking of oil tankers in the
Straits of Hormuz, the downing of a $100 million American drone, the attack on
the Saudi oil fields, and the very recent attempted siege of the US Embassy in
Baghdad. The Iranian backed protestors carrying signage with Soleimani’s name
on it; some say this was the signing of his own death warrant. Yet until this
point, Trump had not retaliated at all.
When
Mr. Trump made his announcement regarding Soleimani, he said America acted in
order to prevent war, not start one. He also made it clear that America was not
looking for ‘regime-change’ in Iran.
The
Iranians thought that Trump would not do anything against them because it would
be unpopular in America - weary of ‘endless Middle East wars’ (true). They
reasoned it would also hurt his chances of re-election in November 2020. Once
Trump acted, Iran has vowed ‘fire from heaven’ retaliation against the United
States and even said the city of Haifa in Israel would be in the cross-hairs.
It has all but abandoned the Obama era 2015 nuclear deal, known as JCPOA.
What
are we to make of all this?
Iran
is the heir of a very proud history, culture, and even an imperial power as
mentioned in the Bible. The 1979 Islamic Revolution overthrew a monarchy dating
back 2,500 years to the time of Cyrus the Great. This revolutionary, theocratic
regime, founded by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (1902-1989), envisaged ‘Plato’s
Republic’ in an Islamic mould. Prior to the revolution, Iran was an ally of the
United States (and de facto ally of Israel). After 1979, Iran became a sworn
enemy of both countries, calling for ‘death to America and Israel’ and/or ‘death
to the great satan and little satan.’
Despite
the rhetoric, the mullahs of Tehran are more pragmatic and less ideological
than would seem possible. While they have meddled with countries all over the
Middle East, they often do it with proxies they have raised up. Also, if there
is a military engagement, Iran uses the proxies to do the fighting. The only
war Iran has fought since 1979 was the Iran-Iraq of 1980-1988, started by
Saddam Hussein. Iranian pragmatism may help cool down the actions that their
fiery rhetoric stokes up.
While
space is limited, remember the following points:
1.
Iran’s
Goal: Iran
seeks leadership and hegemony of the Middle East, and greater leadership in the
Muslim world. Even though it represents the 15% of Muslims that are Shia, it
has had a profound affect on the Sunni Muslim world, too. Since ancient Persia
was an empire, they also dream of imperial glory. Their goal is to build a ‘Shia
Crescent’ from Iran in the Persian Gulf, to the Mediterranean Sea. They have
had some success, since they dominate Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon (also, Yemen and
the Gaza Strip). This agenda has driven Sunni Arab countries into an unlikely
de facto alliance with Israel.
2.
Iranian
retaliation: Iran
has promised retaliation against the US. How can the Islamic Republic counter
the strongest military in modern history? It is called asymmetrical warfare, a ‘David
and Goliath’ scenario. Iran is not just thinking of a direct military
confrontation: they are experts at cyber terrorism, they can activate their
regional proxies, sleeper cells in the US, and possibly utilise EMF
(electro-magnetic field), which, in theory, could knock out the electric grid
of a major western city, wrecking mayhem and even death in its wake. Do they
really want to provoke America to make a major military move, which President
Trump has promised? Neither Iran nor the United States want an all-out-war.
With local unrest and a shaky economy, military adventurism could lead to the
toppling of the regime. Despite all the above these options, Iran’s pragmatism
may win the day.
3.
Israel’s
example: Soleimani,
who headed the Iranian presence in Syria and helped bolster Bashar al Assad,
tried to confront Assad’s next-door neighbour, Israel. Under Benjamin
Netanyahu, they got a furious response. Iran underestimated Israel’s
intelligence operations, air force, special forces, and cyber skills. The
Jewish state repeatedly pounded Iranian installations in Syria, with the death
of Iranian personnel. Until now there has been no known retaliation by Iran
against Israel for all this.
4.
The
Iranian Church: Despite
the government’s intense hostility and active opposition to all things
Christian, the amazing fact is that the church in Iran is the fasting
growing national church per capita in the world. This is remarkable, even
miraculous, since everything the growing Iranian church does is illegal: evangelism,
church-planting, distribution of Bibles, fellowship meetings. They have no
central headquarters, no official status, no bank accounts, and a lot of female
leadership. This is a praying, evangelising church and they are the ‘wild card’
that no one factors in; yet can make a massive difference to the destiny of the
entire nation and the region.
As in
all things, let’s make this a matter of prayer for the people of Iran, Iraq,
Israel, and the entire Middle East. This is one region where you can expect the
unexpected, and it is not all doom and gloom.
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