It is the biggest news for peace in over 25 years! Especially in a region where peace is in short supply. Two Gulf Arab countries, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, agree to to sign a peace treaty and normalise relations with Israel. The accords were signed at the White House on 15 September 2020.
Of the 21 Arab nation-states, the UAE and Bahrain are the third and fourth countries after Egypt and Jordan to make peace with the Jewish State. The last time this happened was in 1994 when Bill Clinton was US President. There is an expectation that other Arab countries will follow the UAE and Bahrain’s lead.
The agreement, brokered by the administration of US President Donald Trump, is called the ‘Abraham Accords’ as a sign of the mutual interest that Israeli Jews and Muslim Arabs have in common with the Biblical patriarch. On 31 August the first-ever direct air flight was conducted from Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital.
Status Quo in Danger
The Abraham Accords is big news. It reflects that a peace-resistant, change-resistant region is slowly moving on. To understand the change, bear some points in mind.
Normalisation: The Arabic word is tatbi’e, and when applied to Israel it means to recognise the Jewish State and cooperate with it. Since 1948, the mindset of the Arab world was that tatbi’e with Israel was nothing short of anathema. As far as the Arab world was concerned, not only did Israel not have a right to exist, but it did not exist.
Maps of the Middle East had ‘Palestine’ written where Israel was located. When an Israeli delegate spoke at the United Nations, the Arab delegates stood up and walked out in unison; after all, since ‘Israel did not exist,’ the delegate at the podium was somebody who was nobody speaking about nothing. Might as well go out and have a coffee. Westerner with an Israeli stamp in their passport were not allowed entrance into an Arab country.
Arab resistance to normalisation was summarised in the Arab League Summit Khartoum Declaration on 1 September 1967, issued after the disastrous Arab military defeat in the June (Six Day) War. When asked if they would like to negotiate with Israel for the return of captured territory, the answer were the ‘Three No’s:’ No negotiation with Israel; No recognition of Israel; No peace with Israel. Israel remained ‘taboo’ for many years to come. Tatbi’e was as remote as ever.
Palestinian Issue: The Arab world also made the Palestinian issue a centrepiece of their foreign policy. The narrative went like this:
1. The plight of the Palestinian Arabs is the central issue in the region; failure to resolve it means war is more likely than peace. This is a serious challenge in an oil-rich, strategically located region. Lack of resolution could adversely affect the entire world
2. Resolution involves recognition of the Palestinian right of self-determination in Palestine;
3. Self-determination involves the establishment of an independent Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza Strip; the repatriation of 1948 and 1967 refugees back to Palestine and even Israel, called ‘right of return;’ and Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine. (Question: would this be the final status or merely an interim agreement?)
Many western and world governments, especially the European Union and UK, accepted these premises, virtually without question. They were embedded in their own foreign policies - for decades.
The Middle East is Changing
According to the United Nations-sponsored Arab Development Report (2002, 2009), the Arab world was going backward in all areas. Even developing regions like Africa were doing better. Since these reports, the situation has deteriorated further. The Arab Spring of 2011 has brought little democracy. Syria has been tortured by war since 2011, Libya and Yemen are also flattened by conflict. Iraq and Lebanon are in serious danger of becoming failed states. Iran, where the grand Persian Empire once stood, has the goal of Shia and regional hegemony. Turkey, which has had several empires on its soil, is evolving from a secular western-orientated NATO ally to an Islamist entity.
Sunni Arab countries feel threatened by both Turkey and Iran. Economic troubles, the struggle with Covid-19, the failure of the Palestinians to accept an agreement with Israel (not to mention the irreconcilable rift between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian National Authority (PLO) in Ramallah, West Bank), has caused second thoughts by the larger Arab world.
Reaction to the Abraham Accords
When Anwar al Sadat of Egypt made peace with Israel in 1979, under PM Menachem Begin, the world rejoiced; they even gave both men a Nobel Peace Prize. But the reaction of the Arab world and Iran was unanimous condemnation. Diplomatic relations were broken and Egypt was expelled from the Arab League, even though the headquarters were in Cairo (all of this has changed since then). Sadat was assassinated in 1981.
This time around, the world seems distracted and the Arabs and Muslim reaction mixed. Iran and Turkey, the ambitious regional powers, roundly condemned the accords, even though Turkey has diplomatic relations and direct flights with Israel. Qatar, Tunisia, and Jordan are muted. In the latter’s case, this is understandable due to the large Palestinian population in the Hashemite kingdom.
The Palestinian Authority and Hamas have predictably condemned the accord and have voiced their
vehement displeasure at the UAE. The Emiratis response: "We did not betray anyone. We have a wise leader who
has decided to do what is good for his country, the Palestinians and all
Arabs and Muslims. You Palestinians need to get rid of your corrupt leaders.”https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16431/uae-palestinians
(Speaking of Palestinians, say a prayer for the Palestinians stuck and in danger is Syria and Iraq, with no one to rescue them).
However, Oman, and Egypt support the accords and Saudi Arabia tacitly does so (otherwise they would not have allowed the Israeli jet to fly over its airspace).
Why is the world reaction muted? There is Covid-19, lockdowns, possible recessions, and the UK and EU, plus some in the US Congress, are concerned that the ‘two-state, two-Jerusalem’ solution is not yet implemented.
The UAE has embraced
tatbi’e brings access to Israeli technology, and know-how, as well as a
counterbalance to the menace of Iran. As this author learned long ago, in the
Middle East, expect the unexpected.
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