Islamic Republic of Iran, which is getting little attention from the international media. This is
because the regime has closed down the internet, so the Iranian people cannot
communicate with the outside world. In other words, it’s a complete media blackout.
Iran is one of the great civilisational countries of world history. Today, it is one of the
leading nations of the Middle East. It is a leader in the Islamic revolution and known for its
anti-Western policies and practices, especially against the United States and Israel. It is
considered the leading state sponsor of terrorism.
While uprisings are not new to Iran - the last one was in 2022 - This one could go further
and faster in toppling the government than the previous times. And if it doesn’t fall this
time, it could pave the way for a change of regime the next time.
Normally, the regime pushes back ruthlessly, and hundreds of protesters die. World
governments watch, lament, offer verbal support, but take no action. Then all is quiet until
the next uprising.
But things are different now. In 2009, the revolt was about election fraud. In 2022, it was
about the brutal murder of a young woman who did not cover her hair sufficiently. Why are
Iranians revolting this time? Simply put, they want regime-change.
One of the major grievances is the economic collapse, accompanied by hyperinflation.
One USD equals 1.47 million Iranian rial. Wages are 200 USD a month, and rent is double
that. Grocery prices are sky high. Hungry people become instant revolutionaries. This is
especially true when Iranians see regime insiders, including the ruling elite, as being
fabulously wealthy - often through corruption and theft.
Reasons for a bad economy include the cost of the Twelve War with Israel in 2025, the
effect of American and EU sanctions, corruption, and economic mismanagement of the
command economy. Iran is investing billions in funding military proxies like Hezbollah, the
Houthis, and Hamas, while presiding over trillions of dollars of financial maleficence.
Iranians resent spending state money on foreign proxies and a rogue nuclear program,
while an increasingly unresponsive and oppressive regime ignores the needs of the
people. They deeply resent that countries with far less mineral resources than Iran are
much wealthier- again, a sign of mismanagement and graft.
Perhaps the biggest problem is that Iran is running out of water. Lack of rain and poor
water management are the reasons. Tehran’s reservoirs are only 10% full. There is talk of
evacuating the capital before it runs out of water.
Things are different this time because of Donald Trump. As mentioned, foreign
governments give lip service to freedom-loving Iranians during an uprising but do nothing.
The US President has promised to take action if the regime keeps killing unarmed
protesters. He said, ‘Help is on the way.’
Another difference from before comes from an unlikely source.
The birth of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 was seen as a repudiation of the 2,500-
year-old Persian monarchy. The Shah fled in disgrace and was not welcomed anywhere,
especially in Iran. Mentioning him favourably could bring serious repercussions. Now, the
exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has been communicating with his
homeland, and the response has been favourable. In what would have been unthinkable a
few weeks ago, there have been chants of ’Long live the Shah.’
The question: Will this rebellion succeed where others failed? Are the Iranians ready to
trade in a republic and return to a monarchy? Some signs to watch: the ultra loyal (to the
regime) IRGC breaks ranks, the Supreme Leader Ali Khameini flees into exile to Moscow,
the water runs out in Tehran, or the Americans start bombing.
One of the key reasons previous revolts failed was the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC). Completely independent from the regular military and the police, the IRGC is
solely devoted to the supreme leadership and ideals of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.
Their loyalty, tenacity, and ferocity make them formidable during earlier revolts, and they
hold the balance of power; whoever they side with wins. Supreme Leader Ali Khameini is
looking to them for complete support; however, there is no guarantee that some IRGC
members won’t defect if the revolt drags on or more unarmed Iranians are killed. The
Iranian government admits the death toll is in the thousands, not hundreds as before. Also,
will their unswerving support matter this time? Consider:
The Iranian economy is in shambles.
Iran is weaker today than ever; the Twelve-Day War decimated it.
Their nuclear program has been ruined.
Iran’s ‘Shia Crescent, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and
Hamas, failed to function as a political and military bloc against the pro-Western Arab
Sunni regimes. Key Sunni countries are being united with Israel in the Trump-inspired
Abraham (Peace) Accords. Iran is being isolated in its own region, which it had hoped to
dominate.
Israel defeated Iran’s foreign proxies in the recent war with Hamas.
The Iranian revolt of 2026 is indeed under different circumstances. These differences may
soon give us a new Iran, which means a new Middle East.
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