It was the Sabbath morning in Israel when the air raid sirens were activated, beckoning the population to their closest bomb shelter. War had broken ou between Israel and its archenemy, Iran. Operation Epic Fury (US name) had begun. And for the first time, Israel was not fighting alone but alongside itsgreat ally, the United States. Comparisons have been frequently made between Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Sir Winston Churchill with US Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Donald J. Trump. If the current leadership wins its war as World War II leaders won theirs, the comparison will hold.
Operation Epic Fury was meticulously designed and flawlessly executed, using multi-domain warfare (cyber, outer space, and AI). With the failure of negotiations, Israel and the US sincerely believed that Iran was a growing threat, so they swung into action. Israel sent out two hundred flights, and each plane had two targets each. In amazingly swift speed, the allies sank Iran’s navy and took control of its airspace. With one attack, they destroyed the bunker of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killing him and forty-eight other targeted leaders. Three days later, the allies bombed the Assembly of Experts meeting where the next supreme leader was to be chosen.
As of this writing, Israel and the US continue to pursue their military objectives.
Why War?
The Islamic Republic of Iran was established in 1979 after abolishing the Persian monarchy, which had lasted 2,500 years, dating back to Cyrus the Great. Their goal was to establish a theocratic, fundamentalist, puritanical Shiite Islamic republic. The regime that would expand into the Sunni Arab Muslim world, destroy Israel, and into the rest of the world (minus the United States).
Ali Khamenei has been the Supreme Leader since 1989 and for the previous eight years served as the country’s President. Patient, ruthless, and tireless in the goal of fusing political Shiite Islam with the power of a nation-state, Khamenei focused on nothing else. He was a dedicated revolutionary.
Like his mentor and predecessor, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, he constantly emphasised the following: Shia Islam is the one true religion.
Iran, like ancient Persia, is ordained for hegemony.
Only a high-ranking Shiite cleric is qualified to run the country as the Supreme Leader. The Supreme Leader must not be questioned. Nuclear power is Iran’s right. For this reason, the clerical regime would never forsake its nuclear program: it spent decades in time and $1 trillion in money to get to this point. Regime supporters would be outraged if they abandoned it now.
Khomeini and Khamenei both saw America and Israel, the great Satan and little Satan respectively, as impediments to Iran’s goals. Their soon and quick demise was declared repeatedly. Iran fought a dirty, bitter, costly war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq (1980-88).
Khomeini provoked Saddam’s initial invasion, and though the war could have ended after two years, Khomeini’s stubbornness stretched it out to eight. The war cost one million soldiers and gained nothing. Khomeini died within less than a year, leaving his successor with a bankrupt, unsettled, and drifting nation.
Khamenei’s response to this challenge was the development of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). Under his leadership, the IRGC has grown into an economic and military powerhouse. They serve the Supreme Leader alone and are fiercely, even fanatically, loyal to him. It is this group that must be dealt with if Iran is to break completely free from the dictatorial clerical rule it has been under for nearly fifty years.
Was This War Inevitable?
Critics of Operation Epic Fury like to say that Iran was not an imminent threat, and this was Trump’s ‘war of choice.’ Question: Iran cannot attack the US mainland presently, so it is attacking US military bases in the Middle East.
Should it wait until Iran has nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles that can reach the continental United States before attacking? Or wait until Iran deploys EMP technology that can knock out the nation’s power grid for months and years?
The war between Iran and Israel/US started in 1979. From then on, there have been weekly public chants of ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel.’ And Iran has backed up its bellicose rhetoric with action. The key weapon to spreading the revolution is terror. Iran’s ‘Shia Crescent’ are subservient nations between Iran and the Mediterranean who will protect its interests. The ‘crescent’ is really a terror empire consisting of Iraq’s Shiite militia, Syria’s Assad regime (now deposed), Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. These proxies have been conducting terrorist attacks around the world, including Australia and the UK. Twice, Iran has targeted Donald Trump for assassination.
The recent pre-war negotiations had the following American demands:
Iran is to cease its nuclear enrichment program. The fear is that if Iran gets the bomb, it will use it. Cease its ballistic missile programs. Stop funding the terror proxies and terrorist activities globally.
What are the chances that the ruling mullahs are prepared to agree to these conditions? Their current rhetoric and past actions don’t provide much hope.
While Iranian leadership can be surprisingly pragmatic, they can be unbending with the fundamentals, even if it risks the apocalypse.
Iran has never been weaker: high inflation, no public support, forsaken by Russia, China, and the proxies. It has sustained much damage in two recent wars. Plus, Iran has a super serious water shortage. The timing for a military strike seemed ideal.
The question is: did Donald Trump choose to start a war or simply choose the timing to end it? You decide.
Until now, Iran has clearly lost the war militarily, but it won’t surrender. The theory is that the IRGC has fragmented into autonomous entities. The idea is to fight a guerrilla war, wait for Trump to leave the White House, use oil revenues to rebuild their nuclear program and plot their revenge.
With the Jewish holiday of Purim in mind, it looks like the modern-day Mordecai will defeat Haman, ‘For such time as this’ (Esther 4:14).
Let’s watch and pray.
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