Israel at War

We know the main story: On the 7th of October, 2023,Hamas launched a surprise attack against Israel, invading by land, sea, and air with 6,000 fighters. The statistics are 1,200 dead - the largest death toll of Jewish people in a single day since the Holocaust. Another 251 were taken hostage. 

This was Day One of the current war. But we must remember that this was not the ‘beginning of the war;’ it’s the continuation of a conflict that started … you fill in the blanks. Did it start in 2023? Not really, on the 7th of October, Israel and Hamas had a ceasefire, which the latter broke. But by its very nature, a ceasefire means pausing a pre-existent conflict. So when did the war start? In 2023? 1987 (when Hamas was created)? 1967? 1948? Or did it start in the Biblical period between Israel and Amalek? The main point is that 7 October was the re-starting - not the beginning - of the current conflict.

What is the scorecard? Israel is fighting a multi-front conflict. In some areas, there have been stunning, impressive victories, while in others, the threat remains. Let’s look at the assessment front by front.

An Assessment

GAZA

After ruining the celebratory Simchat Torah (Rejoicing in the Law) on the black Sabbath of 7th October, Hamas went downhill. Israel pummeled them in Gaza City. Then, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) went to Rafah and Khan Yunis in the South, despite international opposition. Hamas’ leadership has been decimated, infrastructure massively damaged, and terror tunnels destroyed. Its one remaining weapon was the Israeli hostages: in exchange for their release - dead or alive - Hamas is demanding the freedom of hundreds of Palestinians in Israeli prisons, some of them convicted of murdering Jews. 

Hamas feels let down by its benefactor Iran and proxy allies like Hezbollah of Lebanon since they had not been as entirely forthcoming with military assistance as they would have hoped. It is also reported that neither Iran nor Hezbollah knew in advance about Hamas’ 7th of October surprise attack and that’s why they were caught off-guard when the war started.’

LEBANON

Israel and the Lebanese army are not at war; it is the Shiite militia Hezbollah that actively opposes the Jewish state. Of all of Israel’s enemies, Hezbollah was considered the most formidable. It had discipline, leadership, and money, plus it was well-armed with tens of thousands of missiles aimed at Israel. Their involvement in the Hamas-initiated war was meant to create a distraction to Israel’s primary war effort. 

During the early part of the war, there were daily exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah along the border, precipitating the removal of 65,000 Israeli citizens from their homes in the area. Their dislocation lasted for many months.

A turning point was the tragic murder of twelve Druze schoolchildren in a Golan playground at Majdal Shams by a Hezbollah rocket. Israel declared war on Hezbollah’s leadership, including its head, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. He and his successors were assassinated, just like Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar. In addition, Israel succeeded in destroying most of Hezbollah’s supply of missiles. Israel’s greatest neighbouring foe had all but raised the white flag.

SYRIA

Officially, Syria is in a state of war with Israel, but there have been no wars between them since 1973. Its border with the Jewish state was quiet until the Syrian Civil War started in 2011. This conflict, which morphed into a regional war with a lot of international meddling, had a major turning point in December 2024, when the rule of Bashar al Assad was overthrown by HTS (ˆHayat Tahrir al-Sham), a militant Sunni group once associated with al-Qaeda and ISIS (though leader Ahmad al-Sharaa disavowed these connections). Turkey is their main backer. HTS’s victory means the weapon supply lines from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria are severed - which is good for Israel. But HTS’s commitment to Shariah law in Syria could mean the rumblings of a potential new opponent to the Jewish state right on its border.

YEMEN

The Houthi Shiite rebels, whose patron is Iran, are new to the anti-Israel alliance. They have managed to breach Israeli airspace with their drones and long-range missiles. This means that more than once, Israeli civilians were sent scurrying to their underground bunkers. Remember, Yemen is 1,411 miles or 2,271 kilometres from Israel. The Houthis have also successfully hindered international shipping in the Red Sea, though of late, the Trump Administration has launched a major military offensive, warning them and Iran of dire consequences if the attacks on US and international vessels did not cease.

Israel’s response to the Houthi attacks has been the bombing of Yemeni ports, which have received Iranian weapons. However, the sophistication of their weaponry may prove to be a future challenge for Israel.

IRAN 

Of all Israel’s enemies, Iran stands out the most. Its incendiary rhetoric about the destruction of the ‘Zionist entity,’ its support for terror groups and militia, and its attempts to undermine Israel and the Arab states make it a destabilising influence in the region. 

Yet Iran has suffered some major defeats since 7 October: the crushing of its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, the toppling of its Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad, and the failure of its two massive drone and missile attacks against Israel without causing much damage. Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh right under Iran’s nose in Tehran; this was both sobering and embarrassing. Israel’s fiery response to the Iranian barrage was to bomb it - with impunity. Iran’s vaunted ‘Shiite crescent’ from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea is in tatters. Iran has been weakened because of this war, but that could also make the nuclear-ambitious regime more dangerous.

What’s Next for Israel? What You Need to Know

We already mentioned that the current war is a multi-front war, but it is also multi-dimensional, a point we have stressed before. For review, those different dimensions include:

1. Bilateral: This war is between Israel and Hamas.
2. Regional: This war is fought on multiple fronts and parties, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and also Iran itself.
3. Civilisational: This war is between Judeo-Christianity, the foundations of the West, which Israel represents, and anti-western forces, which Iran and its proxies belong.
4. Theological: Though unrecognised by Western political leaders, this explains much, with Biblical theology at odds with Islamic theology. The current conflict is much more theological than political.
5. Spiritual: Also unrecognised by secular leadership, the intense spiritual activity is the reigniting of an ancient hatred during the Old Testament times with the war between Israel and Amalek (Exodus 17:8-16). The current conflict is a proxy war for the even more intense fighting in the heavens (Ephesians 6:12).

While undoubtedly, Israel has won some impressive victories, its main war goals have yet to be reached: the removal from power in Gaza of Hamas and the release of all Israeli hostages. Recently, the failure of Hamas to release the remainder of the hostages caused the ceasefire to be broken and the war to restart in earnest. 

Remember that normally, a ceasefire is a cessation of hostilities with the goal of peacefully and permanently ending the conflict and living in peace. In this conflict, a ceasefire means stop fighting, catch your breath, rearm to the hilt, and live to fight another day.

In this new round of fighting, Israel is not just going to fight until they cause more damage to Hamas, then enter into a ceasefire. They intend to fight until victory, with the quiet cooperation of the American administration.

And it doesn’t end with Hamas: the ultimate goal is to confront Iran and its nuclear program. For years, Israel has been talking about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. With the Islamic Republic close to a nuclear breakout, that stated goal could soon be a reality, though laden with risks. 

President Trump said he preferred that Israel not strike Iran but negotiate. He wrote a letter to Ayatollah Khameini offering peace negotiations, but the latter rejected the offer. So what’s next? 

Israel may conclude that it has no other option. With nuclear facilities that are deep in the ground, the Jewish state may use American-supplied bunker-buster bombs weighing 13,636 kilograms each. The recent successful attack by Israel on Iran and the destruction of its anti-missile systems make them even more vulnerable.

All of this is a major gamble, but Israel may choose to go through the door and settle the conflict with Hamas and Iran and its other proxies, once and for all. Watch this space.

So, the war continues. And could Israel be quietly planning an attack on its greatest nemesis, Iran with the approval of the United States? Watch this space and pray without ceasing (1 Thessalonians 5:17).